Gold Investment:
Why You Should Buy Gold Today

A Gold Investment Report from Outstanding Investments
By Garry White
First Published: 25th August 2007


In a crisis, there’s nowhere safer for your money than gold. It has real intrinsic value. It is an insurance policy against choppy markets - and it is a real tangible asset. I hope you haven’t panicked and liquidated any of your holdings recently, but if you have this is the ideal place to put your hard-earned cash.

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The current gold bull market started in 2001 - but the rally is not over yet. In fact, it’s far from over. Is your portfolio ready for the next leg up of the rally?

In 2001 the gold price stood at around $268 an ounce. Today, it stands at $664.10 an ounce.

The fundamental reasons why the gold bull market exists are quite clear. Let’s take a look at some full-year data from 2006. This will remind you why gold is a great asset to own and why you should buy some now. It’s all about supply and demand.

With economic worries such as the recent unwinding of the US subprime mortgage sector, this demand looks set to increase as investors seek a safe haven. However, the market fallout has presented a buy opportunity in gold as panicking investors liquidated gold and other assets to cover their losses.

A similar thing has been seen in the oil market - that is a major reason for the fall in the oil price. Fretting investors have done the wrong thing and sold positions.


Gold Investment:
Half the World’s Mine Output
Consumed by Just ONE Country


So, demand growth in 2006 was solid, but mine supply fell, as I’ll show you in a moment. But what’s going on in 2007? Well, the World Gold Council has recently published its second quarter report card. It revealed that dollar demand for gold in the jewellery, investment and industrial sectors all hit new highs in the three month period to 30 June.

Jewellery demand was particularly strong, hitting a record $14.5 billion, a 37% increase on the equivalent quarter of last year.

In tonnage terms India, the world’s largest gold market, showed record demand in terms of both investment and jewellery. These figures are not compiled by the World Gold Council itself, but are prepared by independent consultancy GFMS Ltd.

The figures showed that identifiable gold demand made a further substantial recovery in the second quarter, rising 19% in tonnage terms compared with the second quarter of last year. 

Gold jewellery demand and the gold price

 


In value terms, there was a 27% year-on-year increase to $19.8 billion.

World Gold Council Chief Executive James Burton said: "Several countries stand out. The figures from India this quarter are particularly pleasing and we will continue to encourage India‘s ongoing love affair with gold."

India’s total demand hit 317 tonnes in the quarter - which was equivalent to half the global mine output for the period. As India’s economy continues to grow at an unprecedented rate, demand is set to increase further.

Russia is also a major market for gold. Consumption in the quarter rose 27% to 20.3 tonnes. Globally, net retail investment rose by 51% by weight to 132.9 tonnes, and 60% in monetary value to $2.9 billion, compared to Q2 2006.

Russia and India are creating millionaires at a rapid rate. The number of dollar millionaires in Russia exceeded 100,000 in 2006, that is 15.5% higher than 2005, according to Merrill Lynch and Cap Gemini’s 11th annual World Wealth Report.

The Russian Federation is ranked among the world’s top 10 countries which showed the highest increase in the number of dollar millionaires. Regarding the largest growth of its dollar millionaires or high net worth individuals, Russia is second to India, where the number of high net worth individuals grew by 20% in 2006.

In the Middle East, tonnage demand rose 20% to 97.5 tonnes, with Turkey seeing secondquarter records for both jewellery, which rose 14% to 52.2 tonnes, and net retail consumption, which rose 5% to 20.5 tonnes.

A summary of the figures for the second quarter and first half are given in the table below, produced by the World Gold Council:


Second quarter identifiable gold demand - World Gold Council data


CHANGE
% %
2Q07/ 1H07/
Tonnes 2006 1Q07 2Q07 2Q06 1H06
Jewellery consumption 2,279.1 561.9 675.1 29 22
Industrial & dental 452 113.6 116.5 2 2
Electronics 304.4 76.4 79.2 2 2
Other Industrial 86.9 22.5 22.8 7 8
Dentistry 60.7 14.7 14.6 -5 -4
Identifiable investment 643.1 146.9 130.4 -5 -4
Net retail investment 382.9 110.5 132.9 51 41
Bar hoarding 222.9 68.2 85.3 99 79
Official coin 129.1 34.1 34.8 -18 -9
Medals/imitation coins 58.9 21.2 27 146 112
Other retail -28 -13.1 -14.2 -- --
ETF & similar 60.2 36.4 -2.6 -- -7.9
Total identifiable demand 3,374.2 822.4 922.0 19 11

CHANGE
% %
2Q07/ 1H07/
$m 2006 1Q07 2Q07 2Q06 1H06
Jewellery consumption 44,242 11,739 14,474 37 36
Industrial & dental 8,744 2,374 2,498 9 14
Electronics 5,908 1,596 1,698 9 14
Other Industrial 1,687 470 488 14 20
Dentistry 1,179 308 312 1 7
Identifiable investment 12,483 3,068 2,795 1 -7
Net retail investment 7,433 2,308 2,850 60 57
Bar hoarding 4,327 1,425 1,828 111 100
Official coin 2,507 713 747 -131 0
Medals/imitation coins 1,144 442 578 161 137
Other retail -544 -273 -304 -- --
ETF & similar 5,050 760 -55 -- -76
Total identifiable demand 65,498 17,181 19,767 27 24
London pm fix $/0z 603.77 649.82 666.8 6 11


Gold Investment:
Supply Remains Tight


It is clear that demand remains robust, but what about the other side of the equation?

Overall supply remained tight, falling 7% on a year-on-year basis in the second quarter and by 4% in the first half of 2007, compared with the first half of 2006. Mine production rose 3% in both the first half and second quarter, but this growth is not significant enough to meet demand growth.

Scrap supplies fell 27% year-on-year during the second quarter. This is also an indication that the market is expecting rising prices, although scrap sales last year were exceptionally high.

Gold Investment:
Gold to Hit New Record Within a Year


Pierre Lassonde a Director of Newmont Mining recently predicted a surge in the gold price to surge in excess of $1,000 an ounce; with a new record high possible within 12 months. The current all-time high is $850 an ounce.

Lassonde was speaking at the Diggers & Dealers forum in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia. He did, however, clarify the point, indicating that for the gold price to hit $1,000 an ounce it would need a recession in the US economy, which he thought wouldn’t happen for at least another few years.

Should a recession hit the US the flight to safety in gold will become a stampede and the price will reflect this. Remember when George Soros hinted that a USW recession was possible in January 2006, there was a rush into gold that sent it to a 25-year high.

The main question is regarding the timing of a US recession; which could come sooner than most people think. An economic contraction in the world’s largest economy is not a requirement to increase the gold price, but it will certainly help.


Gold Investment:
The US Economy is Precarious -
Protect Yourself and Profit


You can profit from crisis - and it is possible to make money in a falling market. Gold is the ultimate investment in both these cases. But is a slowdown or even a full blown recession in the US likely?

The answer is a resounding YES. Let me explain...

The country is spending significant amounts of money it does not have. The country is doing this - the current national debt stands at an astonishing $9 trillion - and individuals have been doing this too.

Individual borrowers have been able to get attractive credit packages when they have no assets or income. That’s plain daft. This has led to the collapse of the subprime credit market and a slump in the housing sector. Indeed, US banks suffered their largest jump in loan delinquencies since 1991 in the second quarter, as late payments shot up 36% over last year to $11.4 billion, according to a report by the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

The housing sector slump will lead to a reduction in spending going forward as people feel poorer. This will hit the entire economy.

The country also appears to be very far away from sorting out its national debt. Its profligate spending on the war in Iraq looks set to cripple the nation for many years to come. And then there is the infrastructure...

US infrastructure is falling apart. We have had steam pipes exploding outside Grand Central Station, a bridge collapsing in Minneapolis and blackouts in Southern California.

Indeed, according to the American Society of Civil Engineers, it may take as much as $1.6 trillion over the next five years to bring the country’s infrastructure up to an adequate condition. That means they have to spend that money just to stand still.

The shakeout from the credit bubble may not be over, the country is borrowing at an unsustainable rate and it needs to spend trillions just to get its house in order. The US economy is more precariously balanced than most people think - and a lot of that debt has been spread around the world. The credit markets are now truly global and if they dry up then businesses and governments all over the world could find it difficult to raise cash and keep liquid.


Gold Investment:
Private Investors Now Own
More Gold Than Central Banks


An interesting piece of news was released earlier this year from natural resource research firm CPM Group. It revealed that private investors now own more gold than central banks. This is important. It means that influence over the gold prices has moved away from central banks, which can manipulate the price for political reasons.

This is good news. Central banks have stood accused of trying to keep the gold price artificially low. When gold starts to rise, they sell into strength, but the power is now moving to private investors.

It is also important to note that shortages in supply of gold have been ironed over by central banks in the past because of their large stocks of gold. Central banks have been foolishly selling off their holdings. This has removed the buffer at a time when gold demand is soaring and supply is extremely tight.

The pace of central banks selling gold accelerated during the second quarter of the year, reaching 152 tonnes. Spain became a heavy seller disposing of 70 tonnes. The European Central Bank sold a further 37 tonnes.

In June, Switzerland announced that it would sell 250 tonnes, with France accounting for the bulk of the remaining sales with small amounts from Austria, Germany and Sweden.


Gold Investment:
Constant Money Creation
Makes Gold More Attractive


Central banks, particularly the US central bank, have been printing money like it is going out of fashion. The rising tide of liquidity has created a situation where the purchasing power of money has been eroded significantly. This is another reason why gold is attractive. It is a commodity and its supply, therefore, is limited.

And then there’s inflation...

We believe that the era of cheap energy is over. This is bad news for inflation. We are also bullish on a whole raft of commodities - this will stoke the inflation monster.

The United States had a taste of high inflation in the 1970s. A basket of goods that cost $100 in 1970 soared to $212 in 1980, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is what happens when the oil price rises.

Gold is traditionally a hedge against inflation. An ounce of gold would buy you a suit of clothes in the days of Henry VIII and it would still buy you a suit of clothes today. It is real and tangible and it does not lose its value like paper money does. Looking at history, gold is the only investment that has really counted in a crisis. Not cash, not property and not even shares.


Gold Investment:
Timing is Everything: Why Now is the
Best Time Since June to Buy Gold


Gold is real. It is a tangible asset. Indeed, it is the ultimate in tangible wealth. However, it is difficult to store and transport. Do you have somewhere safe to store your assets at home? Probably not.

There is also the issue of quality. The quality of a gold bar must be guaranteed if it’s going to trade on the international gold market. Major players in the world’s gold market such as investment banks, bullion traders and gold funds will only buy gold of a guaranteed quality... that’s why the spreads on gold coins are so large.

Bullion dealers always buy gold that has been assayed for weight and purity. Buying gold coins outside the professional markets will not come with that guarantee. 

60 Day Gold Price

 

The gold price has moved down from the high of $685 per ounce seen at the end of July, with the price falling further as investors liquated gold assets for margin calls. This, obviously, goes against the theory that gold is a safe haven in times of crisis, but this is a short term move. The general trend in a crisis is for gold to move higher - so why the fall when the subprime crisis unfolded?

On Thursday 16 August the gold price fell to $641.50 in intraday trade as global markets slumped. It closed at $649.10. For most of this year it has been trading in a trading range of approximately $650-$700 an ounce - indeed, it had appeared to have settled into the $660- $670 range.

The Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to cut its discount rate on 17 August has now saved many funds from liquidating bullion to cover margin calls on equity losses and meet commitments. The price is again on the rise.

However, it is important to note that here lies one of the risks of investing in gold. Not only can large funds be fickle with their purchases, but gold’s inherent strength as a liquid store of wealth allows investors to use gold as a funding mechanism when a fund sees losses in other asset classes or to cover margin calls. However, these moves are just short term – and the great thing is that this has created a buy opportunity.


Gold Investment:
Newmont Eliminates Hedging


If you are not convinced yet that now is a good time to buy gold then a decision from Newmont Mining, announced a month ago, should have you convinced. The company did something pretty dramatic - it completely eliminated its forward sales contracts, taking a $460 million charge in the process. Indeed, in the second-quarter of this year gold dehedging hit a new record high.

Such forward sales are used as a hedge against falling prices. These contracts sell gold in the ground at today’s price - a traditional hedge against a falling market. This is a confident move and it means that the management expect that they will be able to sell the gold they have in the ground at a better price than today once it is mined. In short, this move means the company expects the prices to rise.

Newmont’s management appears to be confident in the outlook for the gold price, fundamentals for the gold price are very strong and the recent subprime shakeout has presented a buying opportunity.

The fundamentals of the gold market coupled with economic uncertainty make Pierre Lassonde’s prediction of $1,000 gold look eminently achievable.

Garry White
for Outstanding Investments
25th August 2007

UPDATE: Since I wrote this article, the price of gold has hit further highs. This is great news for Outstanding Investments readers. Back in August I recommended a specific gold investment, which has so far gone up by 23%.

I’m still bullish on gold, and this gold investment remains in the Outstanding Investments portfolio as a solid buy.

In today's climate, you make money by buying things that are real. Commodities, resources, infrastructure stocks. The stuff that civilisations are built on. Do it right, and you ensure that the stocks in your portfolio are backed by something with intrinsic value.

Of course, investing in this way means you have to wait a little for your gains. There's no nipping into the market at five past three and scrambling to bank profits before the market closes.

Investing is a life-long business, but most share tipsters are geared up for giving short-term advice. This makes their portfolios look good quickly, so I can see why they do it. But that means they miss out on all the best opportunities. This is crazy.


Gold Investment:
A lesson I learned on how to get rich


Garry WhiteMy name's Garry White. I'm a financial analyst, and I specialise in making money from the most powerful investment trends out there.

My investment strategy stems from something I was told many years ago. When I first started working in the City in the early 1990s, I was given one piece of advice by an old City gent who had been a stockbroker for more than 50 years. It's something I have never forgotten.

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There's no exciting system or quick-and-easy fix. You need to buy a good share and wait for it to rise.

The trick, of course, is choosing the right share...


Gold Investment:
Choosing the right share...


To help me in choosing the right shares, I have a hand-picked team of sector experts, all of whom share my money-making philosophy. Our investment strategy serves us very well (I'll show you the gains we make in just a second).

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FREE subscription to 'Garry writes...': My daily email in which I have just one aim - to help you make a killing in the resource and biotechnology market. I've been bullish on commodity plays since before this resource bull took course. And what I try to do here is identify resource trends, offer expert market projections and analysis that you just won't find in the mainstream press. If you're an investor who loves to stay one step ahead of the crowd - or you just enjoy an interesting and refreshing read - then this e-alert is a must... and it's FREE, just for trying Outstanding Investments!

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Gold Investment:
What It Costs To Get
Quality Investment Advice


So what does a year's subscription to Outstanding Investments cost? Well, for starters, if you wanted a one-to-one consultation with me, I'd charge you the proverbial arm and a leg. I make no bones about that - it's an hour I could otherwise spend researching new opportunities, and you've seen the gains I unearth doing that.

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But subscribe to my service today, and you won't pay anything like that. A year's subscription costs just £117.


Gold Investment:
Would You Pay 20p A Day For Advice
That Could Help You Build A Small Fortune?


But it gets better. I'm slashing the price for the first year.

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The longer you wait to get started with these investments, the less wealth you will build over the next 20 years.

Thank you for reading.

Garry White

Garry White, Editor
Outstanding Investments



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P.S. As promised, here is our full portfolio of closed positions:

Company Name Detail Date Sold Original Price Sale price Gain/loss
OMI Corp. OMM NYSE Jun-07 16.90 29.25 73.08%
Chesapeake Energy CHK NYSE Sep-07 29.18 35.22 20.70%
Suncor Energy SU NYSE Sep-07 12.69 94.68 646.10%
Tesoro Petroleum TSO NYSE Sep-07 25.60 51.01 99.26%
Bronco Drilling BRNC NYSE Sep-07 16.24 14.84 -8.62%
Apache Corp APA NYSE Sep-07 81.59 87.89 7.72%
Yamana Gold AUY NYSE Sep-07 10.22 12.01 17.51%
American Century Global Gold BGEIX Sep-07 3.80 21.68 470.53%
streetTRACKSGold GLD NYSE Sep-07 42.90 72.33 68.60%
Van Eck International Gold INIVX Sep-07 10.30 18.15 76.21%
Teekay Shipping Corp. TK NYSE Sep-07 29.41 61.13 107.85%
Overall average closed position from Jan 07 - Dec 07 143.54%
Placer Dome PDG NYSE Mar-06 12.17 22.46 84.55%
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. AU NYSE Oct-06 36.77 37.41 1.74%
BG Group BG LSE Oct-06 25.60 61.80 141.41%
Headwaters Inc. HW NYSE Oct-06 32.41 24.54 -24.28%
Evergreen Solar ESLR Nasdaq Oct-06 16.39 7.96 -51.43%
Andersons, Inc. ANDE NYSE Oct-06 99.86 33.89 -66.06%
Overall average closed position from Jan 06 - Dec 06 14.32%
Freeport McMoRan pref'd D FCX_pd NYSE Mar-05 7.84 7.41 -5.48%
Harmony Gold HMY NYSE Mar-05 5.46 7.83 43.41%
ICON Energy Fund ICENX Mar-05 12.52 25.19 101.20%
INVESCO Energy Fund FSTEX Mar-05 16.82 31.64 88.11%
Norsk Hydro NHY NYSE Mar-05 39.81 82.22 106.53%
PetroKazakhstan Inc. PKZ NYSE/TSE Mar-05 26.98 39.01 44.59%
Plum Creek Timber PCL NYSE Mar-05 30.10 35.75 18.77%
Precision Drilling PDS NYSE Mar-05 38.85 72.03 85.41%
Schlumberger SLB NYSE Mar-05 48.02 69.35 44.42%
Vanguard Energy VGENX Mar-05 26.82 44.31 65.21%
Apache Corp. APA NYSE Apr-05 52.01 57.66 10.86%
Corn Products International CPO NYSE Apr-05 20.08 20.97 4.43%
Petro-Canada PCZ NYSE Apr-05 35.85 55.68 55.31%
Phelps Dodge PD NYSE Apr-05 93.49 94.95 1.56%
Talisman Energy TLM NYSE Apr-05 11.37 31.70 178.80%
Wheaton River Minerals WHT AMEX Apr-05 1.98 3.37 70.20%
CONSOL CNX NYSE May-05 31.55 47.00 48.97%
Western Gas Resources WGR NYSE May-05 26.51 32.05 20.90%
Kerr-McGee KMG NYSE Jun-05 41.78 72.86 74.39%
Anadarko Petrolleum Corp. APC NYSE Jun-05 45.43 81.29 78.93%
Suez SA SZE NYSE Jun-05 17.29 26.78 54.89%
Western Oil Sands WTO TSE Jun-05 8.10 20.73 155.93%
Overall average closed position from Jan 05 - Dec 05 61.24%

Correct as at 04/01/2008. These figures refer to the past. The past is not a reliable indicator of future performance. No shares were closed between Jan 2004 and Dec 2004, or Jan 2003 and Dec 2003.


Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares – you can lose you some or all of your money, so never risk more than you can afford to lose. Shares recommended in Outstanding Investments may be small company shares. These can be relatively illiquid and hard to trade making them riskier than other investments. Some shares recommended may be denominated in a currency other than sterling. The return from these may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Always seek personal advice if you are unsure about the suitability of any investment. Since 01/11/00, when the service began, and 04/01/08, the average overall performance of our open and closed positions was 75%. In the 12 month periods ending 01/01/08, 01/01/07 and 01/01/06, the overall performance of shares closed during that period were 143.54%, 14.32% and 61.24% respectively. No positions were closed in the 12 month periods ending 01/01/05 and 01/01/04. Figures are calculated using the closing mid-prices on the date on which shares are first recommended, they do not take into account subsequent re-recommendations at a different price. All gains are gross, and returns will be affected by dividend payments, dealing costs and taxes. All portfolio figures are based on virtual performance. A full portfolio is available on request. These figures refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Profits from share dealing are a form of income and subject to taxation. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may be subject to change in the future. Editors or contributors may have an interest in shares recommended. Special first year price offers are only available to those who have not previously subscribed and are limited to one subscription per household. Fleet Street Publications is a member of the Financial Ombudsman Service compensation scheme. Full details of our complaints procedure are available on request and can be found on our website, www.fspinvest.co.uk. Fleet Street Publications treats all clients as retail clients. Outstanding Investments is issued by Fleet Street Publications Ltd. Registered office 7th Floor, Sea Containers House, Upper Ground, London SE1 9JD. Customer services: 020 7633 3741. Registered in England and Wales No 1937374. VAT No GB629 7287 94. FSA No 115234. www.fsa.gov.uk/register. Fleet Street Publications is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. © 2008 Fleet Street Publications Ltd.